We model the surface magnetic field and open flux of the Sun from 1913 to1986 using a surface flux transport model, which includes the observedcycle-to-cycle variation of sunspot group tilts. The model reproduces theempirically derived time evolution of the solar open magnetic flux, and thereversal times of the polar fields. We find that both the polar field and theaxial dipole moment resulting from this model around cycle minimum correlatewith the strength of the following cycle.
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